INTELLIGENCE ARCHIVE
Versioned daily briefs focused on material changes in geopolitics, physical energy flows and cross-asset market transmission.
Tracked Qatar-linked LNG cargoes show selective passage through Hormuz, but extended force majeure into November and December keeps Europe’s winter replacement risk active.
Read brief →Oil rose after Washington rejected Iran’s roadmap, but preliminary Kpler data show a costlier, coercive yet usable Hormuz corridor for crude—not broad energy normalisation.
Read brief →Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day Hormuz roadmap restores upside energy risk before Monday, while physical oil and LNG normalisation remains unverified.
Read brief →Iran’s seven-day Hormuz proposal trims crude risk premium, but unverified Yanbu and LNG recovery leaves Europe’s physical fuel exposure unchanged.
Read brief →Diplomacy improved, but a Hormuz vessel strike and stalled Yanbu loadings keep Europe's fuel-risk channel dominant.
Read brief →A retreat from a blanket US diesel-export ban narrows policy risk, while lower Russian gas forecasts and an EU carbon buffer reshape Europe's energy tail.
Read brief →Saudi Arabia has restored a partial Red Sea crude bypass, but Hormuz shipping remains severely constrained and LNG normalisation is unverified.
Read brief →Saudi crude exports are adapting through Hormuz while Qatari LNG production and Europe’s middle-distillate balance remain severely constrained.
Read brief →Cancelled Saudi cargoes have turned the Yanbu outage into a realised supply event while Hormuz remains selectively passable, lifting the compounded-disruption scenario to 50%.
Read brief →Visible Hormuz commodity traffic fell to four while Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline stayed offline, shifting the four-week map toward compounded infrastructure risk as oil, rates and French power availability tightened.
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