GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Friday, 9 October 2026
US Gulf shut-ins reached 1.3mn b/d as partial Pearl GTL output and reported Chinese fuel exports offered product relief without proving Hormuz normalisation.
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Geopolitical & Markets Intelligence
Versioned daily briefs focused on material changes in geopolitics, physical energy flows and cross-asset market transmission.
GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Thursday, 8 October 2026
Hormuz traffic fell to a two-month low as tanker attacks hit a wartime weekly high, while alternative routes, emergency diesel stocks and US Gulf shut-ins reshape the supply-risk balance.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Wednesday, 7 October 2026
More Middle East oil is moving, but wider Saudi–Houthi attacks and a Gulf hurricane threat keep products, freight and infrastructure risk elevated.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Selective Hormuz passage is now explicit: one inbound tanker turned back under threat, named Qatari LNG cargoes transited, and logistics costs remain extreme.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Monday, 5 October 2026
Middle East crude flows are recovering, but fresh tanker incidents and extreme freight show that neither Hormuz nor the Red Sea has normalised.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Sunday, 4 October 2026
Iraq’s permissioned 2-million-barrel VLCC transit shifts Hormuz risk toward managed coercion, while an unverified Riyadh Aramco attack claim broadens Saudi asset risk.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Saturday, 3 October 2026
G7 emergency stocks relieve near-term diesel stress, while verified Qatar LNG cargoes shift Hormuz risk from fixed-asset loss toward severe passage impairment.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Friday, 2 October 2026
China’s suspension of fuel exports removes a critical products buffer as a fourth recent UKMTO tanker incident and renewed military-risk reporting lift Hormuz passage risk.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Thursday, 1 October 2026
Gulf crude exports have recovered to near-2025 aggregate levels, but three new UKMTO tanker reports and a widening diesel-policy scramble show that energy-system normalisation remains incomplete.
Read brief →GEOPOLITICAL & MARKETS INTELLIGENCE — Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Yanbu’s confirmed restart lifts Middle East crude exports and reduces the severe-passage scenario, but a time-late Hormuz tanker report and unresolved Qatar LNG outages keep the security and winter-gas tails…
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